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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Price Index held to 130.9 in March 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased April 2026
US PCE Price Index held to 130.9 in March 2026, released April 2026.
Latest Release
130.902000
Actual
—
Consensus
130.902000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Price Index (United States) was reported at 130.90 Index 2017=100 in March 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 128.63 Index 2017=100, ranging from 126.96 Index 2017=100 to 130.90 Index 2017=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 130.26 Index 2017=100, up from the prior three at 128.58 Index 2017=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.24 Index 2017=100) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.98 Index 2017=100). In April readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index has averaged 126.80 Index 2017=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
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PCE Price Index - US
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About PCE Price Index — United States
DEFINITION
US PCE Price Index rose to 128.969000 in December, up 0.28% from November’s 128.615000, continuing a steady inflation trend. The index has climbed for eight consecutive months, with year-over-year growth at 2.5%, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Bond yields edged higher after the release as markets price in a cautious Fed stance amid moderating inflation momentum. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 130.9 Index 2017=100. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 130.4 Index 2017=100. Before that (Feb 2026): 129.5 Index 2017=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.46) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.