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US PCE Price Index held to 130.9 in March 2026, released April 2026.
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
PCE Price Index (United States) was reported at 130.90 Index 2017=100 in March 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 128.63 Index 2017=100, ranging from 126.96 Index 2017=100 to 130.90 Index 2017=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 130.26 Index 2017=100, up from the prior three at 128.58 Index 2017=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.24 Index 2017=100) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.98 Index 2017=100). In April readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index has averaged 126.80 Index 2017=100.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
US PCE Price Index rose to 128.969000 in December, up 0.28% from November’s 128.615000, continuing a steady inflation trend. The index has climbed for eight consecutive months, with year-over-year growth at 2.5%, above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Bond yields edged higher after the release as markets price in a cautious Fed stance amid moderating inflation momentum. Updated 4/3/26
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 130.9 Index 2017=100. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 130.4 Index 2017=100. Before that (Feb 2026): 129.5 Index 2017=100.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP, r=0.46) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Building Permits MoM | -0.7 | 4.4 | -0.6 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Building Permits | 1.413 | 1.423 | 1.42 | 1.42 | High | |
| 12:30 | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 4.2 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Housing Starts MoM | -15.4 | -8.5 | -2 | -8.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.392 | 1.43 | 1.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | Export Prices YoY | 11.2 | 8.8 | 10.4 | 10.80 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 2 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Export Prices MoM | 1.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 1.25 | Medium | |
| 16:00 | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.18 | Medium | |
| 20:30 | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -8.33 | -9.119 | -4.5 | -6.42 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.70 | High | |
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 4.8 | 4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | Business Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 3.2 | 3 | 3.90 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 3.8 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 2.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 14:30 | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -8.262 | -7.228 | -4.6 | -4.08 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -0.906 | 0.186 | -1 | -1.94 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 0.951 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.39 | Low | |
| 15:00 | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.68 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1795 | 1800 | 1803.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 10 | 14.05 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 219 | 223 | 221.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 229 | 225 | 220.00 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | Leading Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | ||
| 20:00 | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 81.3 | 75 | 46.95 | Medium | ||