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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS PCE Price Index held to 131.66 in June 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased July 2026
US PCE Price Index held to 131.66 in June 2026, released July 2026.
Latest Release
131.659000
Actual
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Consensus
131.659000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PCE Price Index (United States) was reported at 131.66 Index 2017=100 in June 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 129.91 Index 2017=100, ranging from 127.87 Index 2017=100 to 131.66 Index 2017=100 across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 131.55 Index 2017=100, up from the prior three at 130.27 Index 2017=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.39 Index 2017=100) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.98 Index 2017=100). In July readings over the past 3 years, PCE Price Index has averaged 127.45 Index 2017=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Sep 16) and Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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PCE Price Index - US
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About PCE Price Index — United States
DEFINITION
The US PCE Price Index rose to 131.659 in July, up from June’s 131.454, marking a continued upward trend in consumer prices. July’s increase follows steady monthly gains since October 2025, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. Market participants will watch upcoming data for signs of central bank policy adjustments amid this gradual price rise. Updated 8/27/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 131.7 Index 2017=100. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 131.5 Index 2017=100. Before that (May 2026): 131.5 Index 2017=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |