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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS M1 Money Supply YoY fell to -2.3% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US M1 Money Supply YoY fell to -2.3% in January 2025, released February 2025, down 2.7% from December's 0.4% reading.
Latest Release
-2.300000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.400000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
M1 Money Supply YoY (United States) was reported at -2.3% in January 2025. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct 26) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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M1 Money Supply YoY - US
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About M1 Money Supply YoY — United States
DEFINITION
M1 Money Supply YoY is a financial indicator that measures the annual percentage change in the total amount of currency in circulation, demand deposits, and other highly liquid assets in a country's economy. It provides insight into the growth or contraction of the money supply, which can impact inflation, interest rates, and overall economic activity. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors as it reflects the current state of a country's monetary policy and can signal potential changes in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 57.6 | 58.4 | 57.6 | 57.60 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 56 | 55.9 | 55.5 | 55.75 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 57.9 | 58.8 | 58 | 57.95 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48 | 48.1 | 46.3 | 47.15 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 46.7 | 50.9 | 44.7 | 45.70 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 48.8 | 46.3 | 47.3 | 48.05 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.04 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9.8 | 7 | 8.15 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.095 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.403 | 1.39 | 1.39 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.1 | 0 | -0.85 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.50 | High | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.75 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 443.5 | 444.4 | 444.90 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.30 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | -3 | -5.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -2 | -2.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | -7 | -4.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.684 | 0.66 | 0.66 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 81.9 | 80.5 | 79.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | 6.4 | -3.5 | -3.50 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | -0.9 | -2 | -1.25 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | -1.8 | -3 | -0.70 | Low | |
| 17:00 | US | Money Supply | 23.34 | 23.4 | 23.57 | Low | |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -132.1 | -128.7 | -129.30 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |