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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Monetary Base held to 5,538.6 Billions USD in April 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Monetary Base held to 5,538.6 Billions USD in April 2026, released May 2026.
Latest Release
5538.600000
Actual
—
Consensus
5538.600000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Monetary Base (United States) was reported at 5,538.60 Billions USD in April 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5,472.71 Billions USD, ranging from 5,302.10 Billions USD to 5,740.00 Billions USD across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5,489.20 Billions USD, up from the prior three at 5,388.07 Billions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 129.64 Billions USD) is higher than the prior year (σ 64.01 Billions USD). In May readings over the past 3 years, Monetary Base has averaged 5,637.10 Billions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, positively correlated (Bullish AAPL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun 25) and Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Monetary Base - US
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About Monetary Base — United States
DEFINITION
The monetary base is a key financial indicator that measures the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes physical currency, such as coins and banknotes, as well as commercial bank reserves held at the central bank. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it provides insight into the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system. Changes in the monetary base can have significant impacts on inflation, interest rates, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 5,538.6 Billions USD. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 5,470.4 Billions USD. Before that (Mar 2026): 5,458.6 Billions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 7.9 | -4.3 | -4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 226 | 225 | 225.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1810 | 1800 | 1784.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 8.1 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 223.25 | 226 | 225.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 6 | 10.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83 | -85.2 | -85.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -83.01 | -85.4 | -85.40 | Medium | |