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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Monetary Base held to 5,488.4 Billions USD in May 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Monetary Base held to 5,488.4 Billions USD in May 2026, released June 2026.
Latest Release
5488.400000
Actual
—
Consensus
5488.400000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Monetary Base (United States) was reported at 5,488.40 Billions USD in May 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5,426.24 Billions USD, ranging from 5,302.10 Billions USD to 5,538.90 Billions USD across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5,499.23 Billions USD, up from the prior three at 5,416.37 Billions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 68.25 Billions USD) is comparable than the prior year (σ 68.82 Billions USD). In June readings over the past 3 years, Monetary Base has averaged 5,656.00 Billions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, positively correlated (Bullish AAPL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Barkin Speech (Aug 25) and S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (Aug 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Monetary Base - US
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About Monetary Base — United States
DEFINITION
The monetary base is a key financial indicator that measures the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes physical currency, such as coins and banknotes, as well as commercial bank reserves held at the central bank. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it provides insight into the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system. Changes in the monetary base can have significant impacts on inflation, interest rates, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 5,488.4 Billions USD. Prior reading (May 2026): 5,538.9 Billions USD. Before that (Apr 2026): 5,470.4 Billions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.08 | 0.06 | 0.1 | 0.17 | Medium |
| Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 442.4 | 442.8 | 442.65 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.65 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.60 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.15 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 5 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 1.6 | -1.3 | -1.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -3 | -1 | 2.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 8 | 7 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 90.8 | 90.3 | 90.90 | High | |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -3.28 | 1.9 | 1.90 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Corporate Profits QoQ | 0.5 | 0.7 | -2.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.53 | -1.7 | -1.70 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.688 | -1 | -1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 4.405 | 1.9 | 1.90 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 204 | 203 | 202.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 208 | 210.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -101.4 | -99 | -99.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1799 | 1811 | 1814.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -101.41 | -99.9 | -99.90 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | |