Loading page content
Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Monetary Base held to 5,411.6 Billions USD in July 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Monetary Base held to 5,411.6 Billions USD in July 2026, released August 2026.
Latest Release
5411.600000
Actual
—
Consensus
5411.600000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Monetary Base (United States) was reported at 5,411.60 Billions USD in July 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5,435.81 Billions USD, ranging from 5,302.10 Billions USD to 5,538.90 Billions USD across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5,474.63 Billions USD, down from the prior three at 5,489.30 Billions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 69.70 Billions USD) is lower than the prior year (σ 114.47 Billions USD). In August readings over the past 3 years, Monetary Base has averaged 5,589.10 Billions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, positively correlated (Bullish AAPL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct 26) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Monetary Base - US
Loading chart data...
About Monetary Base — United States
DEFINITION
The monetary base is a key financial indicator that measures the total amount of money in circulation within an economy. It includes physical currency, such as coins and banknotes, as well as commercial bank reserves held at the central bank. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it provides insight into the overall health and stability of a country's monetary system. Changes in the monetary base can have significant impacts on inflation, interest rates, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 5,411.6 Billions USD. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5,523.9 Billions USD. Before that (Jun 2026): 5,488.4 Billions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 57.6 | 58.4 | 57.6 | 57.60 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 56 | 55.9 | 55.5 | 55.75 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 57.9 | 58.8 | 58 | 57.95 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48 | 48.1 | 46.3 | 47.15 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 46.7 | 50.9 | 44.7 | 45.70 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 48.8 | 46.3 | 47.3 | 48.05 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.04 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9.8 | 7 | 8.15 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.095 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.403 | 1.39 | 1.39 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.1 | 0 | -0.85 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.50 | High | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.75 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 443.5 | 444.4 | 444.90 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.30 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | -3 | -5.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -2 | -2.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -5 | -7 | -4.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.684 | 0.66 | 0.66 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 81.9 | 80.5 | 79.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales MoM | 6.4 | -3.5 | -3.50 | High | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | -0.9 | -2 | -1.25 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | -1.8 | -3 | -0.70 | Low | |
| 17:00 | US | Money Supply | 23.34 | 23.4 | 23.57 | Low | |
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -132.1 | -128.7 | -129.30 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |