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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS RBA Interest Rate Decision fell to 4.1% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US RBA Interest Rate Decision fell to 4.1% in January 2025, released February 2025, down 0.25% from December's 4.35% reading. The reading matched the 4.1% consensus.
Latest Release
4.100000
Actual
4.100000
Consensus
4.350000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Interest Rate Decision (United States) was reported at 4.1% in January 2025. This matched the market consensus of 4.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.35%. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Barkin Speech (Jun 28) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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RBA Interest Rate Decision - US
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About RBA Interest Rate Decision — United States
DEFINITION
The RBA Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the monetary policy decisions made by the Reserve Bank of Australia. This decision, which is announced on a monthly basis, determines the official cash rate and has a significant impact on the economy, financial markets, and interest rates for loans and savings. It is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and individuals as it provides insight into the current and future state of the Australian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 62.7 | 50 | 48.90 | Medium | |