Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr held to 3.1% in November 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2025
US Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr held to 3.1% in November 2025, released December 2025.
Latest Release
3.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr (United States) was reported at 3.1% in November 2025. The reading was unchanged from the previous release.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.1%, up from the prior three at 2.9%. In December readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr has averaged 3.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Barkin Speech (Jun 28) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
SHARE
Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr - US
Loading chart data...
About Interest Rate Projection - 3rd Yr — United States
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Projection for the 3rd year is a financial indicator that forecasts the expected changes in interest rates for the third year. This projection is based on various economic factors and can provide valuable insights for businesses and investors in making informed decisions regarding borrowing, lending, and investment strategies. It is an essential tool for financial planning and risk management in the ever-changing market conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2025): actual 3.1 %. Prior reading (Sep 2025): 3.1 %. Before that (Dec 2024): 3.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 62.7 | 50 | 48.90 | Medium | |