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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Interest Rate Projection - Current climbed to 3.8% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Interest Rate Projection - Current climbed to 3.8% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.4% from April's 3.4% reading.
Latest Release
3.800000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.400000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Projection - Current (United States) was reported at 3.8% in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.4%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.6%, down from the prior three at 3.8%. In June readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Projection - Current has averaged 4.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Barkin Speech (Jun 28) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Interest Rate Projection - Current - US
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About Interest Rate Projection - Current — United States
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Projection - Current is a financial indicator that provides insight into the current state of interest rates. It is a valuable tool for investors and financial professionals, as it helps them make informed decisions about borrowing, lending, and investing. This indicator is based on current market conditions and expert analysis, providing a reliable forecast of where interest rates may be headed in the near future. By monitoring the Interest Rate Projection - Current, individuals and businesses can stay ahead of potential changes in interest rates and adjust their financial strategies accordingly.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.8 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 3.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 62.7 | 50 | 48.90 | Medium | |