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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr climbed to 4.1% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr climbed to 4.1% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.5% from July's 3.6% reading.
Latest Release
4.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.600000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr (United States) was reported at 4.1% in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.6%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.6%, up from the prior three at 3.47%. In September readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr has averaged 4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Goolsbee Speech (Sep 21) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr - US
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About Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr — United States
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Projection for the 1st year is a financial indicator that predicts the expected interest rate for the first year of a loan or investment. This projection is based on current market trends and economic factors, and can help individuals and businesses make informed decisions about their financial plans. It serves as a valuable tool for budgeting and forecasting, allowing for better financial management and risk assessment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.1 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.08 | 0.2 | 0.09 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.97 | 3.909 | 3.91 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 11 | 9 | 6.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -8 | -6 | -12.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 4 | 5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.6 | 54.05 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 56 | 55.2 | 55.90 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 56.5 | 56 | 56.15 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 196 | 202 | 197.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Current Account | -226.8 | -221 | -221.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.25 | 203 | 202.13 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1730 | 1735 | 1745.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.61 | 0.61 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 9 | 15.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 5 | 7.50 | Low | |
| Friday, September 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 1.1 | -0.5 | -0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 1.3 | -0.6 | -0.95 | Low | |