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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr fell to 3.1% in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
US Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr fell to 3.1% in February 2026, released March 2026, down 0.3% from January's 3.4% reading.
Latest Release
3.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.400000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr (United States) was reported at 3.1% in February 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.4%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.3%, down from the prior three at 3.63%. In March readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr has averaged 3.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr - US
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About Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr — United States
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Projection for the 1st year is a financial indicator that predicts the expected interest rate for the first year of a loan or investment. This projection is based on current market trends and economic factors, and can help individuals and businesses make informed decisions about their financial plans. It serves as a valuable tool for budgeting and forecasting, allowing for better financial management and risk assessment.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.1 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.