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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr fell to 3.1 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
US Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr fell to 3.1 in February 2026, released March 2026, down 0.3 from January's 3.4 reading.
Latest Release
3.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.400000
Previous
The March 2026 reading fell from the previous value of 3.4. Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks) and negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR).
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Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, May 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.05 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.496 | 154.372 | 154.6 | 155.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.95 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 5.2 | 4 | 4.3 | 4.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.45 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.45 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -4.084 | -2.504 | -2.85 | -3.47 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -4.306 | -2.313 | -2.1 | -3.20 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 0.19 | -1.294 | -2.83 | -1.32 | Low |
| Thursday, May 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 211 | 199 | 205 | 208.00 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1758 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.8 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 7.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1 | 1.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 4.2 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 3.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.20 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 203.75 | 203 | 203.5 | 203.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.10 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 85 | 63 | 85 | 85.00 | Low |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.85 | Medium |