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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 10-Year Treasury Yield held to 4.54 Percent in July 2026
FREDDailyReleased July 2026
US 10-Year Treasury Yield held to 4.54 Percent in July 2026.
Latest Release
4.540000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.540000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
10-Year Treasury Yield (United States) was reported at 4.54 Percent in July 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.25 Percent, ranging from 3.97 Percent to 4.67 Percent across 248 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.55 Percent, up from the prior three at 4.48 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.26 Percent). In July readings over the past 3 years, 10-Year Treasury Yield has averaged 4.25 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 14) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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10-Year Treasury Yield - US
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About 10-Year Treasury Yield — United States
DEFINITION
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, the benchmark long-duration US government debt instrument. Quoted as the constant-maturity rate by the US Treasury. It reflects the market-clearing interest rate investors demand for lending to the US government over a 10-year horizon.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
The 10-year yield is the most widely watched rate in global finance. It anchors mortgage rates, corporate-bond pricing, equity-discount-rate inputs, and FX-carry calculations. Movement reflects expectations for future short-rate policy, inflation, and the term premium. A rapidly rising 10y can pressure equity valuations (especially long-duration growth names).
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | negative | high | Higher discount rates compress valuations |
| USD | positive | high | Higher yields attract foreign capital |
| Gold | negative | medium | Higher real yields reduce gold attractiveness |
| Mortgage rates | positive | high | 30y mortgage rates track 10y closely |
FAQ
- Why is the 10y so important?
- It is the benchmark long-rate that anchors mortgage pricing, corporate credit, and equity discount rates.
- What causes the 10y to move?
- Fed policy expectations, inflation outlook, term-premium shifts, and Treasury supply/demand.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.54 Percent. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.56 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.55 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -293 | -132.8 | -126.40 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -293 | -135.8 | -127.90 | Medium |
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 95.3 | 95.6 | 94.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 334 | 334.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 335.12 | 334.71 | 334.71 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.80 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.90 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 103.1 | 128 | 139.00 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |