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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 2-Year Treasury Yield held to 4.15 Percent in August 2026
FREDDailyReleased August 2026
US 2-Year Treasury Yield held to 4.15 Percent in August 2026.
Latest Release
4.150000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.150000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
2-Year Treasury Yield (United States) was reported at 4.15 Percent in August 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.75 Percent, ranging from 3.38 Percent to 4.37 Percent across 248 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.19 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.23 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.27 Percent) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.22 Percent). In August readings over the past 3 years, 2-Year Treasury Yield has averaged 4.10 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug 17) and NAHB Housing Market Index (Aug 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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2-Year Treasury Yield - US
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About 2-Year Treasury Yield — United States
DEFINITION
The US 2-Year Treasury Yield closed at 4.150000% on August 13, down from July 31’s 4.28%, marking a decline in short-term borrowing costs. This drop reflects easing pressure after July’s peak, signaling a slight retreat in yield levels. Market participants will watch upcoming Federal Reserve communications for further guidance. Updated 8/15/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 4.15 Percent. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.2 Percent. Before that (Aug 2026): 4.22 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 15.6 | 10.2 | 10.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 34 | 33 | 34.00 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | 19 | -4.7 | -4.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -0.6 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.427 | 1.35 | 1.35 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 10.2 | 9.6 | 9.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.6 | 1.2 | 1.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.374 | 1.37 | 1.37 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 76.3 | 76.30 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.1 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -5.4 | 0.5 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -0.3 | 1.4 | 3.25 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1808 | 1808.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25.3 | 25.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 210 | 210.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 200.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |