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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions held to -0.52 in May 2026
FREDWeeklyReleased May 2026
US Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions held to -0.52 in May 2026.
Latest Release
-0.523000
Actual
—
Consensus
-0.523000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions (United States) was reported at -0.52 (index) in May 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.51 (index), ranging from -0.56 (index) to -0.44 (index) across 52 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.52 (index), down from the prior three at -0.49 (index). Volatility over the past year (σ 0.03 (index)) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.05 (index)). In May readings over the past 3 years, Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions has averaged -0.43 (index).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions - US
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About Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions — United States
DEFINITION
The US Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions index registered -0.523000 in May, extending the tightening trend from April's -0.516000. This marks a further contraction in financial conditions, reflecting increased credit stress compared to the previous month. Market participants will monitor upcoming data for signs of stabilization amid ongoing monetary policy adjustments. Updated 5/21/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.523 Index. Prior reading (May 2026): -0.516 Index. Before that (May 2026): -0.509 Index.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.