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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 30-Year Treasury Yield fell to 5.1 Percent in May 2026
FREDDailyReleased May 2026
US 30-Year Treasury Yield fell to 5.1 Percent in May 2026, down 0.01 Percent from April's 5.11 Percent reading.
Latest Release
5.100000
Actual
—
Consensus
5.110000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
30-Year Treasury Yield (United States) was reported at 5.10 Percent in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.11 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.83 Percent, ranging from 4.54 Percent to 5.18 Percent across 249 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.13 Percent, up from the prior three at 5.09 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.12 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.26 Percent). In May readings over the past 3 years, 30-Year Treasury Yield has averaged 4.75 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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30-Year Treasury Yield - US
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About 30-Year Treasury Yield — United States
DEFINITION
US 30-Year Treasury Yield fell to 5.110000% in May, down from April’s 5.180000%. The decline marks a slight retreat after reaching 5.18% on May 19, indicating easing long-term borrowing costs. Market focus now shifts to upcoming economic data for further yield direction. Updated 5/22/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 5.1 Percent. Prior reading (May 2026): 5.11 Percent. Before that (May 2026): 5.18 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.