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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 10Y-3M Treasury Spread climbed to 0.81 Percent in August 2026
FREDDailyReleased August 2026
US 10Y-3M Treasury Spread climbed to 0.81 Percent in August 2026, up 0.03 Percent from July's 0.78 Percent reading.
Latest Release
0.810000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.780000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
10Y-3M Treasury Spread (United States) was reported at 0.81 Percent in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.78 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.49 Percent, ranging from -0.07 Percent to 1.00 Percent across 249 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.81 Percent, down from the prior three at 0.82 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.41 Percent). In August readings over the past 3 years, 10Y-3M Treasury Spread has averaged -0.36 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago PMI (Aug 28) and Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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10Y-3M Treasury Spread - US
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About 10Y-3M Treasury Spread — United States
DEFINITION
The yield spread between the 10-year US Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill (10y minus 3m). A widely watched yield-curve metric. Negative values indicate an inverted yield curve.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
The 10y/3m spread is one of the most reliable historical recession indicators studied by the Federal Reserve. Sustained inversion (10y/3m below zero for a quarter or more) has preceded every US recession since the 1960s by 6 to 18 months. Used as a regime signal by macro investors.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | mixed | low | Inversion regime is risk-off over multi-quarter horizon |
| US Treasuries | mixed | low | Curve shape rather than level affects sector |
| Bank stocks | negative | medium | Net interest margin compresses on inversion |
FAQ
- What does an inverted yield curve mean?
- Short-term yields exceed long-term yields, signaling market expectations for slower future growth and/or Fed easing.
- Is 10y/3m better than 10y/2y?
- The Fed favors 10y/3m for recession signaling; 10y/2y is more commonly cited in financial media.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.81 Percent. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.78 Percent. Before that (Aug 2026): 0.83 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.92 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 205.5 | 204.25 | 203 | 204.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 203 | 207 | 208 | 205.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.27 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.38 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1778 | 1796 | 1790 | 1784.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.88 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 15 | 16 | 20 | 17.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low |
| Friday, August 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 57 | 63.10 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51 | 55.2 | 51 | 51.00 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 50.6 | 55.4 | 50.6 | 50.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.8 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 51.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low | |