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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) held to 2.65 Percent in September 2026
FREDDailyReleased September 2026
US High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) held to 2.65 Percent in September 2026.
Latest Release
2.650000
Actual
—
Consensus
2.650000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) (United States) was reported at 2.65 Percent in September 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.86 Percent, ranging from 2.60 Percent to 3.46 Percent across 261 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.65 Percent, up from the prior three at 2.62 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.39 Percent). In September readings over the past 3 years, High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) has averaged 3.24 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 9) and API Crude Oil Stock Change (Sep 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) - US
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About High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) — United States
DEFINITION
US High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) registered at 2.650000% for September, slightly below August’s 2.660000%. The spread narrowed marginally from August’s level, indicating a modest tightening in credit risk premiums. Market participants will watch for further shifts amid ongoing economic data and Federal Reserve signals. Updated 9/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.65 Percent. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 2.66 Percent. Before that (Sep 2026): 2.65 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 99.8 | 99.3 | 98.95 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.77 | 3.7999 | 3.80 | Low | |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 14.17 | 12 | 12.00 | Low | |