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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) fell to 2.78 Percent in May 2026
FREDDailyReleased May 2026
US High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) fell to 2.78 Percent in May 2026, down 0.02 Percent from April's 2.8 Percent reading.
Latest Release
2.780000
Actual
—
Consensus
2.800000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | STOCKS | Bearish AAPL | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) (United States) was reported at 2.78 Percent in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.80 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.94 Percent, ranging from 2.64 Percent to 3.46 Percent across 263 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.81 Percent, up from the prior three at 2.80 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.40 Percent). In May readings over the past 3 years, High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) has averaged 3.28 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) - US
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About High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) — United States
DEFINITION
The US High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) narrowed to 2.780000% in May 2026, down from April's 2.800000%. This slight decline indicates a modest tightening in credit risk premiums compared to the previous month. Market participants will watch upcoming credit data and Federal Reserve signals for further direction. Updated 5/23/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 2.78 Percent. Prior reading (May 2026): 2.8 Percent. Before that (May 2026): 2.86 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.