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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CBOE VIX fell to 16.76 in May 2026
FREDDailyReleased May 2026
US CBOE VIX fell to 16.76 in May 2026, down 0.68 from April's 17.44 reading.
Latest Release
16.760000
Actual
—
Consensus
17.440000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | STOCKS | Bearish AAPL | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CBOE VIX (United States) was reported at 16.76 (index) in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 17.44 (index). Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 18.21 (index), ranging from 13.47 (index) to 31.05 (index) across 257 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 17.42 (index), down from the prior three at 17.84 (index). Volatility over the past year (σ 3.26 (index)) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.91 (index)). In May readings over the past 3 years, CBOE VIX has averaged 17.07 (index).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CBOE VIX - US
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About CBOE VIX — United States
DEFINITION
The US CBOE VIX closed at 16.760000 on May 21, down from 17.440000 on May 20, signaling a decline in market volatility. This drop reflects easing investor anxiety after a brief spike earlier in the month, with the index falling from highs above 18. The lower VIX level may reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve as markets price in less near-term risk. Updated 5/23/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 16.76 Index. Prior reading (May 2026): 17.44 Index. Before that (May 2026): 18.06 Index.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.