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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread fell to 0.43 Percent in May 2026
FREDDailyReleased May 2026
US 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread fell to 0.43 Percent in May 2026, down 0.06 Percent from April's 0.49 Percent reading.
Latest Release
0.430000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.490000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
10Y-2Y Treasury Spread (United States) was reported at 0.43 Percent in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.49 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.56 Percent, ranging from 0.43 Percent to 0.74 Percent across 250 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.48 Percent, down from the prior three at 0.53 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.07 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.28 Percent). In May readings over the past 3 years, 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread has averaged 0.09 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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10Y-2Y Treasury Spread - US
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About 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread — United States
DEFINITION
The US 10Y-2Y Treasury Spread narrowed to 0.430000% in May, down from April’s 0.490000%, marking a continued flattening of the yield curve. This decline from April’s level signals reduced long-term yield premiums relative to short-term rates. Market participants will watch upcoming Fed communications closely amid this tightening spread. Updated 5/23/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.43 Percent. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.49 Percent. Before that (May 2026): 0.53 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.