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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) climbed to 2.71 Percent in September 2026
FREDDailyReleased September 2026
US High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) climbed to 2.71 Percent in September 2026, up 0.06 Percent from August's 2.65 Percent reading.
Latest Release
2.710000
Actual
—
Consensus
2.650000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) (United States) was reported at 2.71 Percent in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.65 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.86 Percent, ranging from 2.60 Percent to 3.46 Percent across 262 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.69 Percent, down from the prior three at 2.69 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.39 Percent). In September readings over the past 3 years, High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) has averaged 3.12 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 16) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) - US
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About High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) — United States
DEFINITION
US High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) rose to 2.710000% in September, up from August’s 2.650000%, marking a widening in credit risk. The increase from 2.65% to 2.71% signals growing investor caution amid tightening financial conditions. Market participants will watch for further spread movements as central bank policies remain restrictive. Updated 9/16/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.71 Percent. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 2.65 Percent. Before that (Sep 2026): 2.7 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.65 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.7 | 6.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 34.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 4.3 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.433 | 1.41 | 1.41 | High | |