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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) climbed to 3.26 Percent in October 2026
FREDDailyReleased October 2026
US High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) climbed to 3.26 Percent in October 2026, up 0.12 Percent from September's 3.14 Percent reading.
Latest Release
3.260000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.140000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) (United States) was reported at 3.26 Percent in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.14 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.89 Percent, ranging from 2.60 Percent to 3.46 Percent across 262 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.19 Percent, down from the prior three at 3.36 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.19 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.39 Percent). In October readings over the past 3 years, High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) has averaged 3.04 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) - US
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About High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) — United States
DEFINITION
US High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) rose to 3.260000% in October, up from September’s 3.140000%. The increase signals a widening risk premium in the credit market compared to the prior month. Market participants will watch for further spread movements amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Updated 10/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 3.26 Percent. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 3.14 Percent. Before that (Oct 2026): 3.18 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ | 0.9 | 1 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost - Wages QoQ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Employment Cost Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 55.3 | 58.8 | 56.1 | 55.70 | Medium |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |