Loading page content
Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) held to 37.81 Dollars in August 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) held to 37.81 Dollars in August 2026, released September 2026.
Latest Release
37.810000
Actual
—
Consensus
37.810000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) (United States) was reported at 37.81 Dollars in August 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 37.41 Dollars, ranging from 37.00 Dollars to 37.81 Dollars across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 37.74 Dollars, up from the prior three at 37.51 Dollars. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.27 Dollars) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.39 Dollars). In September readings over the past 3 years, Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) has averaged 36.62 Dollars.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) - US
Loading chart data...
About Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) — United States
DEFINITION
The month-over-month percentage change in average hourly earnings of all private nonfarm employees, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the monthly Employment Situation release. A key wage-inflation gauge.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Wage growth is a leading indicator of consumer-price inflation and a focal point for Fed policymakers assessing whether labor-market tightness is feeding through to broader inflation. Sustained wage growth above productivity gains supports hawkish policy expectations.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasuries | negative | medium | Higher yields on wage acceleration |
| USD | positive | medium | Hawkish Fed implication |
FAQ
- When is this released?
- First Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET, alongside Nonfarm Payrolls.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 37.81 Dollars. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 37.76 Dollars. Before that (Jul 2026): 37.65 Dollars.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |