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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) held to 37.75 Dollars in July 2026
FREDMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) held to 37.75 Dollars in July 2026, released August 2026.
Latest Release
37.750000
Actual
—
Consensus
37.750000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) (United States) was reported at 37.75 Dollars in July 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 37.33 Dollars, ranging from 36.85 Dollars to 37.75 Dollars across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 37.67 Dollars, up from the prior three at 37.42 Dollars. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.28 Dollars) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.39 Dollars). In August readings over the past 3 years, Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) has averaged 36.53 Dollars.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) - US
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About Avg Hourly Earnings (Private) — United States
DEFINITION
The month-over-month percentage change in average hourly earnings of all private nonfarm employees, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the monthly Employment Situation release. A key wage-inflation gauge.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Wage growth is a leading indicator of consumer-price inflation and a focal point for Fed policymakers assessing whether labor-market tightness is feeding through to broader inflation. Sustained wage growth above productivity gains supports hawkish policy expectations.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Treasuries | negative | medium | Higher yields on wage acceleration |
| USD | positive | medium | Hawkish Fed implication |
FAQ
- When is this released?
- First Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET, alongside Nonfarm Payrolls.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 37.75 Dollars. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 37.65 Dollars. Before that (Jun 2026): 37.6 Dollars.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |