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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Real Earnings MoM fell to -0.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Real Earnings MoM fell to -0.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.7% from August's 0.2% reading.
Latest Release
-0.500000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.200000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Real Earnings MoM (United States) was reported at -0.5% in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.07%, ranging from -0.5% to 0.8% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.1%, down from the prior three at 0.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.37%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.28%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct 23) and CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions (Oct 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Real Earnings MoM - US
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About Real Earnings MoM — United States
DEFINITION
US Real Earnings MoM fell by -0.500000% in September, reversing August’s 0.200000% gain. This decline signals a contraction in real earnings compared to the previous month. Market participants will watch upcoming labor data closely amid this downward shift. Updated 10/14/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.62) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 198.75 | 200 | 198.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1703 | 1720 | 1724.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 200 | 200 | 197.00 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 67 | 79 | 78.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 11 | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 16 | 20 | 18 | 17.00 | Low |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.04 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9.8 | 7 | 8.15 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.095 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.403 | 1.39 | 1.39 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.1 | 0 | -0.85 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.50 | High | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.75 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 443.5 | 444.4 | 444.90 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.30 | Low | |