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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) held to 177.5 in October 2025
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsQuarterlyReleased January 2026
US ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) held to 177.5 in October 2025, released January 2026.
Latest Release
177.50
Latest (2026)
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Previous
World Bank
Source
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) (United States) was reported at 177.50 Index Dec 2005=100 in October 2025. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 176.23 Index Dec 2005=100, up from the prior three at 171.95 Index Dec 2005=100. In January readings over the past 3 years, ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) has averaged 171.83 Index Dec 2005=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) - US
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About ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) — United States
DEFINITION
US ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) rose to 176.233 in September, up 0.73% from August’s 174.954, continuing a steady upward trend. The index expanded from August to September, marking the largest monthly gain since January and a 7.6% increase year-over-year. Persistent wage growth keeps labor market pressures elevated, influencing bond yields and monetary policy considerations. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 177.5 Index Dec 2005=100. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 176.2 Index Dec 2005=100. Before that (Jul 2025): 174.9 Index Dec 2005=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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