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US ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) climbed to 177.5 in October 2025, released January 2026, up 1.26 from September's 176.23 reading.
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) (United States) was reported at 177.50 Index Dec 2005=100 in October 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 176.23 Index Dec 2005=100. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 176.23 Index Dec 2005=100, up from the prior three at 171.95 Index Dec 2005=100. In January readings over the past 3 years, ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) has averaged 171.83 Index Dec 2005=100.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
US ECI Wages & Salaries (Private) rose to 176.233 in September, up 0.73% from August’s 174.954, continuing a steady upward trend. The index expanded from August to September, marking the largest monthly gain since January and a 7.6% increase year-over-year. Persistent wage growth keeps labor market pressures elevated, influencing bond yields and monetary policy considerations. Updated 4/3/26
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released quarterly.
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 177.5 Index Dec 2005=100. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 176.2 Index Dec 2005=100. Before that (Jul 2025): 174.9 Index Dec 2005=100.
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Tuesday, May 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Medium | ||
| 13:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index YoY | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.80 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index | 441.4 | 441.8 | 440.20 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 0.9 | 1 | 1.00 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | CB Consumer Confidence | 92.8 | 91.9 | 93.80 | High | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -2.3 | -1 | 0.85 | Medium | ||
| Wednesday, May 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Services Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -2 | -1 | -4.50 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 3 | 4 | 3.00 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Services Index | -9.9 | -8 | -10.40 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.55 | Low | ||
| Thursday, May 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Corporate Profits QoQ | 5.7 | 4.1 | 4.10 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.8 | 3.5 | 3.50 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 211 | 211.00 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.80 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Personal Income MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.5 | 209 | 209.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1780 | 1780.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Real Consumer Spending | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Sales QoQ | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Prices QoQ | 2.9 | 4.5 | 4.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.5 | 2 | 2.00 | High | ||
| 14:00 | New Home Sales | 0.682 | 0.67 | 0.67 | Medium | ||