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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Average Hourly Earnings (Private) climbed to 37.81 Dollars in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Average Hourly Earnings (Private) climbed to 37.81 Dollars in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.05 Dollars from July's 37.76 Dollars reading.
Latest Release
37.810000
Actual
—
Consensus
37.760000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (Private) (United States) was reported at 37.81 Dollars in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 37.76 Dollars. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 37.41 Dollars, ranging from 37.00 Dollars to 37.81 Dollars across 11 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 37.74 Dollars, up from the prior three at 37.50 Dollars. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.27 Dollars) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.39 Dollars). In September readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Earnings (Private) has averaged 36.62 Dollars.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AAPL (Bearish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Average Hourly Earnings (Private) - US
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About Average Hourly Earnings (Private) — United States
DEFINITION
US Average Hourly Earnings (Private) rose to 37.810000 USD in September, up from August’s 37.760000 USD, marking a steady increase. This gain continues the gradual upward trend observed since December 2025, reflecting ongoing wage growth. Market participants will watch upcoming employment data for further signals on labor market strength. Updated 10/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 37.81 Dollars. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 37.76 Dollars. Before that (Jul 2026): 37.64 Dollars.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bearish AAPL, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |