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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Average Hourly Earnings (Private) climbed to 37.38 Dollars in February 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased March 2026
US Average Hourly Earnings (Private) climbed to 37.38 Dollars in February 2026, released March 2026, up 0.09 Dollars from January's 37.29 Dollars reading.
Latest Release
37.380000
Actual
—
Consensus
37.290000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (Private) (United States) was reported at 37.38 Dollars in February 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 37.29 Dollars. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 36.88 Dollars, ranging from 36.36 Dollars to 37.38 Dollars across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 37.27 Dollars, up from the prior three at 36.96 Dollars. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33 Dollars) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.41 Dollars). In March readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Earnings (Private) has averaged 36.05 Dollars.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Average Hourly Earnings (Private) - US
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About Average Hourly Earnings (Private) — United States
DEFINITION
US Average Hourly Earnings (Private) rose to $37.02 in November 2025, up from $37.00 in October 2025, marking a steady increase. This 0.05 increase continues a gradual uptrend with a 2.5% year-over-year gain from November 2024. Market reaction was muted as the print aligned with recent trends, keeping risk sentiment stable. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 37.38 Dollars. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 37.29 Dollars. Before that (Jan 2026): 37.15 Dollars.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.71) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.