Loading page content
Loading page content
US Average Hourly Earnings (Private) climbed to 37.38 Dollars in February 2026, released March 2026, up 0.09 Dollars from January's 37.29 Dollars reading.
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Average Hourly Earnings (Private) (United States) was reported at 37.38 Dollars in February 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 37.29 Dollars. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 36.88 Dollars, ranging from 36.36 Dollars to 37.38 Dollars across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 37.27 Dollars, up from the prior three at 36.96 Dollars. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33 Dollars) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.41 Dollars). In March readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Earnings (Private) has averaged 36.05 Dollars.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
US Average Hourly Earnings (Private) rose to $37.02 in November 2025, up from $37.00 in October 2025, marking a steady increase. This 0.05 increase continues a gradual uptrend with a 2.5% year-over-year gain from November 2024. Market reaction was muted as the print aligned with recent trends, keeping risk sentiment stable. Updated 4/3/26
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 37.38 Dollars. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 37.29 Dollars. Before that (Jan 2026): 37.15 Dollars.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bullish GOOGL, r=0.71) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Tuesday, May 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Medium | ||
| 13:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index YoY | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.80 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index | 441.4 | 441.8 | 440.20 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 0.9 | 1 | 1.00 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | CB Consumer Confidence | 92.8 | 91.9 | 93.80 | High | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -2.3 | -1 | 0.85 | Medium | ||
| Wednesday, May 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Services Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -2 | -1 | -4.50 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 3 | 4 | 3.00 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Services Index | -9.9 | -8 | -10.40 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.55 | Low | ||
| Thursday, May 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Corporate Profits QoQ | 5.7 | 4.1 | 4.10 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.8 | 3.5 | 3.50 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 211 | 211.00 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | -0.3 | 2.2 | 2.25 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.80 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Personal Income MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.5 | 209 | 209.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1780 | 1780.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Real Consumer Spending | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Sales QoQ | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Prices QoQ | 2.9 | 4.5 | 4.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.5 | 2 | 2.00 | High | ||
| 14:00 | New Home Sales | 0.682 | 0.67 | 0.67 | Medium | ||