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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Average Hourly Earnings (Private) climbed to 37.64 Dollars in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Average Hourly Earnings (Private) climbed to 37.64 Dollars in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.13 Dollars from April's 37.51 Dollars reading.
Latest Release
37.640000
Actual
—
Consensus
37.510000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (Private) (United States) was reported at 37.64 Dollars in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 37.51 Dollars. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 37.19 Dollars, ranging from 36.70 Dollars to 37.64 Dollars across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 37.52 Dollars, up from the prior three at 37.26 Dollars. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.28 Dollars) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.39 Dollars). In June readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Earnings (Private) has averaged 36.34 Dollars.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Existing Home Sales MoM (Aug 11) and Existing Home Sales (Aug 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Average Hourly Earnings (Private) - US
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About Average Hourly Earnings (Private) — United States
DEFINITION
US Average Hourly Earnings (Private) rose to 37.640000 USD in June, up from May’s 37.510000 USD, marking a steady increase. This gain continues the gradual upward trend observed since September 2025, reflecting ongoing wage growth. Market participants will watch upcoming labor data for further signals on inflation and Federal Reserve policy. Updated 7/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 37.64 Dollars. Prior reading (May 2026): 37.51 Dollars. Before that (Apr 2026): 37.41 Dollars.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 97.8 | 97.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.4 | -0.7 | -1.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.09 | 4.07 | 4.05 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 334.03 | 334.39 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 332.6 | 332.85 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.45 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -294.6 | -297.10 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -294.6 | -265.70 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1801 | 1799 | 1799.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 198.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.7 | 4.7 | 5.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.55 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.75 | 197 | 197.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.566 | 156.41 | 157.36 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 5.5 | 5 | 5.55 | Low | |