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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ECI Total Compensation (Private) climbed to 175.26 in October 2025
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsQuarterlyReleased January 2026
US ECI Total Compensation (Private) climbed to 175.26 in October 2025, released January 2026, up 1.31 from September's 173.95 reading.
Latest Release
175.26
Latest (2026)
173.94
Previous
World Bank
Source
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ECI Total Compensation (Private) (United States) was reported at 175.26 Index Dec 2005=100 in October 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 173.95 Index Dec 2005=100. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 173.95 Index Dec 2005=100, up from the prior three at 169.73 Index Dec 2005=100. In January readings over the past 3 years, ECI Total Compensation (Private) has averaged 169.59 Index Dec 2005=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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ECI Total Compensation (Private) - US
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About ECI Total Compensation (Private) — United States
DEFINITION
US ECI Total Compensation (Private) rose to 173.949 in September, up from August’s 172.657. This 0.75% increase continues a steady upward trend, with the index expanding for nine consecutive quarters and outpacing the 12-month average of 170.92. The persistent wage growth keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 175.3 Index Dec 2005=100. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 173.9 Index Dec 2005=100. Before that (Jul 2025): 172.7 Index Dec 2005=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.