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US ECI Total Compensation (Private) climbed to 175.26 in October 2025, released January 2026, up 1.31 from September's 173.95 reading.
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
ECI Total Compensation (Private) (United States) was reported at 175.26 Index Dec 2005=100 in October 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 173.95 Index Dec 2005=100. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 173.95 Index Dec 2005=100, up from the prior three at 169.73 Index Dec 2005=100. In January readings over the past 3 years, ECI Total Compensation (Private) has averaged 169.59 Index Dec 2005=100.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
US ECI Total Compensation (Private) rose to 173.949 in September, up from August’s 172.657. This 0.75% increase continues a steady upward trend, with the index expanding for nine consecutive quarters and outpacing the 12-month average of 170.92. The persistent wage growth keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance. Updated 4/3/26
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released quarterly.
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 175.3 Index Dec 2005=100. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 173.9 Index Dec 2005=100. Before that (Jul 2025): 172.7 Index Dec 2005=100.
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Tuesday, May 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.30 | Medium | ||
| 13:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.1 | -0.05 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index YoY | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.80 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | House Price Index | 441.4 | 441.8 | 440.20 | Low | ||
| 13:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 0.9 | 1 | 1.00 | Medium | ||
| 14:00 | CB Consumer Confidence | 92.8 | 91.9 | 93.80 | High | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | -2.3 | -1 | 0.85 | Medium | ||
| Wednesday, May 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Services Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | -2 | -1 | -4.50 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 3 | 4 | 3.00 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Services Index | -9.9 | -8 | -10.40 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.55 | Low | ||
| Thursday, May 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Corporate Profits QoQ | 5.7 | 4.1 | 4.10 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.8 | 3.5 | 3.50 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 211 | 211.00 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.15 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.80 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Personal Income MoM | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.5 | 209 | 209.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 3.4 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1780 | 1780.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Real Consumer Spending | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Price Index QoQ | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Sales QoQ | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.60 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PCE Prices QoQ | 2.9 | 4.5 | 4.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.5 | 2 | 2.00 | High | ||
| 14:00 | New Home Sales | 0.682 | 0.67 | 0.67 | Medium | ||