Loading page content
Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 10Y-3M Treasury Spread fell to 0.86 Percent in September 2026
FREDDailyReleased September 2026
US 10Y-3M Treasury Spread fell to 0.86 Percent in September 2026, down 0.03 Percent from August's 0.89 Percent reading.
Latest Release
0.860000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.890000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
10Y-3M Treasury Spread (United States) was reported at 0.86 Percent in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.89 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.53 Percent, ranging from -0.03 Percent to 1.00 Percent across 249 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.90 Percent, up from the prior three at 0.87 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.25 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.31 Percent). In September readings over the past 3 years, 10Y-3M Treasury Spread has averaged -0.43 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 16) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
SHARE
10Y-3M Treasury Spread - US
Loading chart data...
About 10Y-3M Treasury Spread — United States
DEFINITION
The yield spread between the 10-year US Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill (10y minus 3m). A widely watched yield-curve metric. Negative values indicate an inverted yield curve.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
The 10y/3m spread is one of the most reliable historical recession indicators studied by the Federal Reserve. Sustained inversion (10y/3m below zero for a quarter or more) has preceded every US recession since the 1960s by 6 to 18 months. Used as a regime signal by macro investors.
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | mixed | low | Inversion regime is risk-off over multi-quarter horizon |
| US Treasuries | mixed | low | Curve shape rather than level affects sector |
| Bank stocks | negative | medium | Net interest margin compresses on inversion |
FAQ
- What does an inverted yield curve mean?
- Short-term yields exceed long-term yields, signaling market expectations for slower future growth and/or Fed easing.
- Is 10y/3m better than 10y/2y?
- The Fed favors 10y/3m for recession signaling; 10y/2y is more commonly cited in financial media.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.86 Percent. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.89 Percent. Before that (Sep 2026): 0.95 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.65 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.7 | 6.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 34.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 160.35 | Medium | |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -12.4 | 9 | 9.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 4.3 | -1.6 | -1.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.433 | 1.41 | 1.41 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.239 | 1.31 | 1.31 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1774 | 1780 | 1785.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 208 | 208.50 | High | |