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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 10-Year Treasury Yield held to 4.68 Percent in July 2026
FREDDailyReleased July 2026
US 10-Year Treasury Yield held to 4.68 Percent in July 2026.
Latest Release
4.680000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.680000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
10-Year Treasury Yield (United States) was reported at 4.68 Percent in July 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.26 Percent, ranging from 3.97 Percent to 4.71 Percent across 248 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.65 Percent, down from the prior three at 4.68 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18 Percent) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.26 Percent). In July readings over the past 3 years, 10-Year Treasury Yield has averaged 4.41 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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10-Year Treasury Yield - US
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About 10-Year Treasury Yield — United States
DEFINITION
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, the benchmark long-duration US government debt instrument. Quoted as the constant-maturity rate by the US Treasury. It reflects the market-clearing interest rate investors demand for lending to the US government over a 10-year horizon.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
The 10-year yield is the most widely watched rate in global finance. It anchors mortgage rates, corporate-bond pricing, equity-discount-rate inputs, and FX-carry calculations. Movement reflects expectations for future short-rate policy, inflation, and the term premium. A rapidly rising 10y can pressure equity valuations (especially long-duration growth names).
MARKET IMPACT
| Market | Direction | Strength | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | negative | high | Higher discount rates compress valuations |
| USD | positive | high | Higher yields attract foreign capital |
| Gold | negative | medium | Higher real yields reduce gold attractiveness |
| Mortgage rates | positive | high | 30y mortgage rates track 10y closely |
FAQ
- Why is the 10y so important?
- It is the benchmark long-rate that anchors mortgage pricing, corporate credit, and equity discount rates.
- What causes the 10y to move?
- Fed policy expectations, inflation outlook, term-premium shifts, and Treasury supply/demand.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.68 Percent. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 4.67 Percent. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.61 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |