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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions held to -0.55 in July 2026
FREDWeeklyReleased July 2026
US Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions held to -0.55 in July 2026.
Latest Release
-0.554000
Actual
—
Consensus
-0.554000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions (United States) was reported at -0.55 (index) in July 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.52 (index), ranging from -0.56 (index) to -0.44 (index) across 51 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.55 (index), down from the prior three at -0.51 (index). Volatility over the past year (σ 0.03 (index)) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.04 (index)). In July readings over the past 3 years, Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions has averaged -0.47 (index).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and ISM Manufacturing Employment (Aug 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions - US
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About Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions — United States
DEFINITION
US Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions eased to -0.554000 in July, improving from June's -0.544000. The index shows a continued loosening of financial conditions compared to June's level. Markets remain attentive to Federal Reserve signals amid this trend. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.554 Index. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.544 Index. Before that (Jul 2026): -0.539 Index.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 53.3 | 54 | 54.00 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 49.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 73 | 70 | 70.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 56 | 55.4 | 55.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -77.6 | -73 | -72.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Exports | 317.7 | 312 | 312.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Imports | 395.3 | 385 | 385.35 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | -1.3 | 0.5 | 1.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.065 | 3.05 | 3.16 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 45.5 | 47.5 | 47.80 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.594 | 7.25 | 7.26 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.95 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 98 | 75 | 75.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 55.4 | 56 | 57.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 51.2 | 52 | 53.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 55.1 | 55.3 | 52.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 67.7 | 66.2 | 66.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 54 | 54.2 | 54.15 | High | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:30 | US | Challenger Job Cuts | 45.849 | 59 | 59.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 200 | 200.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 198 | 198.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1798 | 1798.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Unit Labour Costs QoQ | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Productivity QoQ | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |