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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions held to -0.56 in September 2026
FREDWeeklyReleased September 2026
US Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions held to -0.56 in September 2026.
Latest Release
-0.564000
Actual
—
Consensus
-0.564000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions (United States) was reported at -0.56 (index) in September 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.52 (index), ranging from -0.56 (index) to -0.44 (index) across 51 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.56 (index), down from the prior three at -0.55 (index). Volatility over the past year (σ 0.03 (index)) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.04 (index)). In September readings over the past 3 years, Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions has averaged -0.45 (index).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Sep 16) and Housing Starts MoM (Sep 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions - US
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About Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions — United States
DEFINITION
US Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions index registered -0.564000 in August, improving slightly from July’s -0.560000 and indicating a modest easing in financial conditions. The index has trended lower since early July, moving from -0.524000 to the current level, reflecting gradually more accommodative conditions. Market participants will watch upcoming Federal Reserve communications for signals on monetary policy amid this easing. Updated 9/11/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.564 Index. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -0.56 Index. Before that (Aug 2026): -0.556 Index.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 7.6 | 20.6 | 14.75 | 11.18 | High |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 7.14 | -0.3 | -1.8 | 2.67 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 1.2 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 1.4 | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.80 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 1.2 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.45 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6 | 5.03 | 4.7 | 5.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | -1.4 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 8.55 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 35 | 34 | 33.00 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -0.64 | -0.391 | -1.6 | -2.28 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.794 | 1.269 | -1 | -0.53 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.585 | 2.087 | 0.1 | 0.83 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.63 | Medium |