Loading page content
Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Average Hourly Earnings (Private) climbed to 37.41 Dollars in March 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Average Hourly Earnings (Private) climbed to 37.41 Dollars in March 2026, released April 2026, up 0.06 Dollars from February's 37.35 Dollars reading.
Latest Release
37.410000
Actual
—
Consensus
37.350000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Earnings (Private) (United States) was reported at 37.41 Dollars in March 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 37.35 Dollars. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 36.98 Dollars, ranging from 36.47 Dollars to 37.41 Dollars across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 37.34 Dollars, up from the prior three at 37.06 Dollars. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.30 Dollars) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.41 Dollars). In April readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Earnings (Private) has averaged 36.10 Dollars.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun 18) and Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
SHARE
Average Hourly Earnings (Private) - US
Loading chart data...
About Average Hourly Earnings (Private) — United States
DEFINITION
US Average Hourly Earnings (Private) rose to $37.02 in November 2025, up from $37.00 in October 2025, marking a steady increase. This 0.05 increase continues a gradual uptrend with a 2.5% year-over-year gain from November 2024. Market reaction was muted as the print aligned with recent trends, keeping risk sentiment stable. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 37.41 Dollars. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 37.35 Dollars. Before that (Feb 2026): 37.27 Dollars.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.