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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism climbed to 48.8 in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism climbed to 48.8 in January 2026, released February 2026, up 1.6 from December's 47.2 reading. The reading matched the 47.9 consensus.
Latest Release
48.800000
Actual
47.900000
Consensus
47.200000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.31
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 47.4
Actual: 48.8
Error: -1.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (United States) was reported at 48.80 in January 2026. This beat the market consensus of 47.90 by 0.90. The reading rose from the previous value of 47.20.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 46.63, down from the prior three at 49.30.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.31.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism - US
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About IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism — United States
DEFINITION
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism is a highly regarded financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and confidence of consumers and investors towards the current and future state of the economy. It is based on a monthly survey conducted by Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP), providing valuable insights into the health and direction of the economy. This indicator is widely used by economists, analysts, and policymakers to gauge the level of economic optimism and its potential impact on financial markets and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 42.8, consensus 48.1. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 48.8. Before that (Jan 2026): 47.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.70) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |