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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell to 47.5 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
US RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell to 47.5 in February 2026, released March 2026, down 1.3 from January's 48.8 reading. The reading matched the 49.3 consensus.
Latest Release
47.500000
Actual
49.300000
Consensus
48.800000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.44
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 49.5
Actual: 47.5
Error: +2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (United States) was reported at 47.50 in February 2026. This missed the market consensus of 49.30 by 1.80. The reading fell from the previous value of 48.80. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 48.04, ranging from 43.90 to 50.90 across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 47.83, up from the prior three at 46.70. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.79) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.93). In March readings over the past 3 years, RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has averaged 46.93.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, positively correlated (Bullish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.44.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 25) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index - US
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About RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index — United States
DEFINITION
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is a highly regarded financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and confidence of consumers and investors towards the current and future state of the economy. Based on a monthly survey of households, this index provides valuable insights into consumer spending and investment behavior, making it a key tool for businesses and policymakers in assessing economic conditions and making informed decisions. With a proven track record of accurately predicting economic trends, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is a trusted and reliable resource for understanding the health of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 42.8, consensus 48.1. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 47.5. Before that (Feb 2026): 48.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.71) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.