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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Prices Paid fell to 35.5 in November 2015
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2015
US ISM Prices Paid fell to 35.5 in November 2015, released December 2015, down 3.5 from October's 39 reading. The reading missed the 40 consensus by 4.5. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 49.63. Over the past 3 months, ISM Prices Paid averaged 38.5, vs 44.17 in the prior 3-month window. ISM Prices Paid is now the lowest in 32 months.
Latest Release
35.5
Actual
40
Consensus
39
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.4
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Dec 2015
Predicted: 39.93
Actual: 35.5
Error: +4.42
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Prices Paid (United States) was reported at 35.50 in December 2015. This missed the market consensus of 40.00 by 4.50. The reading fell from the previous value of 39.00. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 37.50, down from the prior three at 44.17.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.40.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug 20) and Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2015.
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ISM Prices Paid - US
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About ISM Prices Paid — United States
DEFINITION
ISM Prices Paid is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the change in prices paid by businesses for goods and services. This indicator is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers across various industries, providing valuable insights into inflationary pressures and overall economic trends. It is considered a key measure of inflation and can help inform business decisions and market expectations.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2015): actual 35.5, consensus 40. Prior reading (Oct 2015): 39. Before that (Sep 2015): 38.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 4.405 | 17.422 | -0.6 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.688 | -0.968 | -1.2 | -0.26 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.53 | -0.01 | -0.9 | -1.22 | Low |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1790 | 1786.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 41.4 | 25 | 15.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 209 | 210 | 209.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 199 | 200 | 199.75 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 36 | 15 | 18.00 | Low | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 54.5 | 53.2 | 53.30 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 54.6 | 54 | 53.90 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.9 | 54.65 | Medium | |
| Monday, August 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.02 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |