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US NAB Business Confidence climbed to 4 in January 2025, released February 2025, up 6 from December's -2 reading.
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
NAB Business Confidence (United States) was reported at 4.00 in January 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.00. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Monthly Report (Jun 11) and Core PPI MoM (Jun 11).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
NAB Business Confidence is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses in Australia. It is based on a survey of business owners and managers, and provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy. A high NAB Business Confidence reading indicates a positive outlook for business growth and investment, while a low reading may suggest a more cautious approach. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact financial markets and decision-making.
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Wednesday, June 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | CPI | 335.12 | 333.02 | 335.11 | 335.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CPI s.a | 333.979 | 332.407 | 333.7 | 333.84 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | CPI YoY | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | CPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 14:30 | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -0.2 | 1.502 | -0.5 | -0.35 | Low | |
| 14:30 | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.186 | 3.364 | -0.5 | -0.16 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.228 | -7.974 | -4 | -5.61 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | Monthly Budget Statement | -293 | 215 | -275 | -284.00 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | Budget Balance | -293 | 215 | -282.9 | -287.95 | Medium | |
| Thursday, June 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Core PPI MoM | 1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Producer Price Index YoY | 6 | 6.4 | 6.40 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225 | 219 | 219.00 | Medium | ||
| 12:30 | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1777 | 1780 | 1780.00 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.70 | High | ||
| 12:30 | Core PPI YoY | 5.2 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 214.75 | 216.5 | 216.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | Producer Price Index | 156.496 | 157.5 | 157.50 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.40 | Low | ||
| 12:30 | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | ||
| 14:30 | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 95 | 101 | 101.00 | Low | ||
| Friday, June 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | Michigan Current Conditions | 45.8 | 46.2 | 47.65 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.80 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.80 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 44.1 | 44.3 | 44.10 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 44.8 | 46 | 46.25 | High | ||
| Monday, June 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 19.6 | 9 | 7.30 | Medium | ||
| 13:15 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium | ||
| 13:15 | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 76 | 76.05 | Low | ||
| 13:15 | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.55 | Low | ||
| 13:15 | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Low | ||
| 13:15 | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.35 | Low | ||
| 14:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 36 | 36.50 | Medium | ||