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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS NAB Business Confidence climbed to 4 in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US NAB Business Confidence climbed to 4 in January 2025, released February 2025, up 6 from December's -2 reading.
Latest Release
4.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
-2.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NAB Business Confidence (United States) was reported at 4.00 in January 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.00. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug 20) and Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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NAB Business Confidence - US
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About NAB Business Confidence — United States
DEFINITION
NAB Business Confidence is a key financial indicator that measures the overall sentiment and outlook of businesses in Australia. It is based on a survey of business owners and managers, and provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the economy. A high NAB Business Confidence reading indicates a positive outlook for business growth and investment, while a low reading may suggest a more cautious approach. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and policymakers as it can impact financial markets and decision-making.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 4.405 | 17.422 | -0.6 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.688 | -0.968 | -1.2 | -0.26 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.53 | -0.01 | -0.9 | -1.22 | Low |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 36 | 15 | 18.00 | Low | |
| Friday, August 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 54.5 | 53.2 | 53.30 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 54.6 | 54 | 53.90 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | 53.9 | 54.65 | Medium | |