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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago PMI climbed to 58.8 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Chicago PMI climbed to 58.8 in September 2026, up 11.7 from August's 47.1 reading. The print exceeded the 51.2 consensus by 7.6. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 50.6. Over the past 3 months, Chicago PMI averaged 52.35, vs 56.2 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
58.8
Actual
51.2
Consensus
47.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.63
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 48.8
Actual: 58.8
Error: -10
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Chicago PMI (United States) was reported at 58.80 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 51.20 by 7.60. The reading rose from the previous value of 47.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 53.47, ranging from 43.50 to 62.70 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 54.50, down from the prior three at 57.40. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.27) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.15). In September readings over the past 3 years, Chicago PMI has averaged 48.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.63.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Chicago PMI - US
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About Chicago PMI — United States
DEFINITION
Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a monthly economic indicator that measures the level of business activity in the Chicago area. It is based on a survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the health of the local economy. The index is considered a leading indicator of economic growth and is closely watched by investors, businesses, and policymakers. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in business activity, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI is a key tool for assessing the overall economic outlook and making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 58.8, consensus 51.2. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 47.1. Before that (Jul 2026): 57.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |