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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago PMI fell to 47.1 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Chicago PMI fell to 47.1 in August 2026, down 10.5 from July's 57.6 reading. The reading missed the 58.3 consensus by 11.2. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 50.6. Over the past 3 months, Chicago PMI averaged 57.15, vs 54.9 in the prior 3-month window. Chicago PMI is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
47.1
Actual
58.3
Consensus
57.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.63
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 58.35
Actual: 47.1
Error: +11.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Chicago PMI (United States) was reported at 47.10 in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 58.30 by 11.20. The reading fell from the previous value of 57.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.65, ranging from 40.60 to 62.70 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 53.80, down from the prior three at 57.73. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.05) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.33). In August readings over the past 3 years, Chicago PMI has averaged 44.90.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.63.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Chicago PMI - US
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About Chicago PMI — United States
DEFINITION
Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a monthly economic indicator that measures the level of business activity in the Chicago area. It is based on a survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the health of the local economy. The index is considered a leading indicator of economic growth and is closely watched by investors, businesses, and policymakers. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in business activity, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI is a key tool for assessing the overall economic outlook and making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 47.1, consensus 58.3. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 57.6. Before that (Jun 2026): 56.7.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |