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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago PMI climbed to 62.7 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Chicago PMI climbed to 62.7 in May 2026, up 13.5 from April's 49.2 reading. The print exceeded the 50.5 consensus by 12.2. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 46.31. Over the past 3 months, Chicago PMI averaged 51, vs 51.73 in the prior 3-month window. Chicago PMI is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
62.7
Actual
50.5
Consensus
49.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.16
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 49.4
Actual: 62.7
Error: -13.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Chicago PMI (United States) was reported at 62.70 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 50.50 by 12.20. The reading rose from the previous value of 49.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 48.41, ranging from 40.40 to 62.70 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 57.73, up from the prior three at 47.10. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.49) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.41). In May readings over the past 3 years, Chicago PMI has averaged 46.20.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.16.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Chicago PMI - US
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About Chicago PMI — United States
DEFINITION
Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a monthly economic indicator that measures the level of business activity in the Chicago area. It is based on a survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the health of the local economy. The index is considered a leading indicator of economic growth and is closely watched by investors, businesses, and policymakers. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in business activity, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI is a key tool for assessing the overall economic outlook and making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 62.7, consensus 50.5. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 49.2. Before that (Mar 2026): 52.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.59) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.