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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Chicago PMI fell to 56.7 in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Chicago PMI fell to 56.7 in June 2026, down 6 from May's 62.7 reading. The reading matched the 58.1 consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 47.82. Over the past 3 months, Chicago PMI averaged 55.95, vs 54.83 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
56.7
Actual
58.1
Consensus
62.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 64.2
Actual: 56.7
Error: +7.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Chicago PMI (United States) was reported at 56.70 in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 58.10 by 1.40. The reading fell from the previous value of 62.70. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.04, ranging from 40.60 to 62.70 across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 57.40, up from the prior three at 51.73. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.34) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.29). In June readings over the past 3 years, Chicago PMI has averaged 48.17.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.00.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 31, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Chicago PMI - US
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About Chicago PMI — United States
DEFINITION
Chicago PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a monthly economic indicator that measures the level of business activity in the Chicago area. It is based on a survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into the health of the local economy. The index is considered a leading indicator of economic growth and is closely watched by investors, businesses, and policymakers. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in business activity, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The Chicago PMI is a key tool for assessing the overall economic outlook and making informed financial decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 56.7, consensus 58.1. Prior reading (May 2026): 62.7. Before that (Apr 2026): 49.2.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |