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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS S&P Global Composite PMI Flash fell to 52.3 in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash fell to 52.3 in January 2026, released February 2026, down 0.7 from December's 53 reading. The reading matched the 52.6 consensus.
Latest Release
52.300000
Actual
52.600000
Consensus
53.000000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 52.5
Actual: 52.3
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (United States) was reported at 52.30 in January 2026. This missed the market consensus of 52.60 by 0.30. The reading fell from the previous value of 53.00. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Import Prices MoM (Oct 16) and Export Prices MoM (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2026.
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S&P Global Composite PMI Flash - US
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About S&P Global Composite PMI Flash — United States
DEFINITION
The US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash fell to 52.3 in January 2026, missing the estimate of 52.6 and marking the lowest reading since September 2025. This represents a 0.7-point decline from December’s 53.0, signaling a second consecutive monthly slowdown while remaining above the 50 expansion threshold. Market reaction was cautious, with equity futures dipping and bond yields edging lower as investors reassess growth momentum. Updated 2/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 52.3, consensus 52.6. Prior reading (Dec 2025): 53. Before that (Nov 2025): 54.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | 20.9 | 37.8 | 28.4 | 24.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 25.5 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 17.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.70 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1714 | 1710 | 1706.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 5 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.40 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 198 | 200 | 193.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 159.78 | 157.411 | 159.1 | 159.44 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 198.25 | 199 | 197.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.75 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 67 | 85 | 76 | 73.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 15:30 | US | Atlanta Fed GDPNow | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.518 | 0.382 | -0.5 | 1.51 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -8.557 | -3.186 | -0.3 | -4.43 | Medium |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -2.527 | -0.042 | -1.6 | -2.06 | Low |
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 0.6 | 1 | 0.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 7 | 7.9 | 8.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.45 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 0.80 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.3 | 76.5 | 76.45 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.35 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | -0.3 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.85 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -167 | -29 | -29.00 | Medium | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | -27.9 | 75.2 | 75.20 | Medium | |
| Monday, October 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 32 | 31 | 31.00 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.085 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |