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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Construction Output YoY fell to -4.2% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US Construction Output YoY fell to -4.2% in January 2025, released February 2025, down 3.1% from December's -1.1% reading. The reading missed the -2.2% consensus by 2.0%.
Latest Release
-4.200000
Actual
-2.200000
Consensus
-1.100000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.42 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Feb 2025
Predicted: -1.67
Actual: -4.2
Error: +2.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (United States) was reported at -4.2% in January 2025. This missed the market consensus of -2.2% by 2%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.1%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. In February readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged 0.95%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Construction Output YoY - US
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About Construction Output YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.