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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Construction Output YoY fell to -4.2% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US Construction Output YoY fell to -4.2% in January 2025, released February 2025, down 3.1% from December's -1.1% reading. The reading missed the -2.2% consensus by 2.0%.
Latest Release
-4.200000
Actual
-2.200000
Consensus
-1.100000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.42 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Feb 2025
Predicted: -1.67
Actual: -4.2
Error: +2.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (United States) was reported at -4.2% in January 2025. This missed the market consensus of -2.2% by 2%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.1%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. In February readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged 0.95%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Aug 24) and Fed Barkin Speech (Aug 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Construction Output YoY - US
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About Construction Output YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, August 24, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.02 | 0.1 | 0.32 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 442.4 | 442.8 | 442.65 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.65 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.60 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.15 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 5 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 1.6 | -1.3 | -1.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -3 | -1 | 2.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 8 | 7 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 90.8 | 90.3 | 90.90 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.80 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Corporate Profits QoQ | 0.5 | 0.7 | -2.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -101.4 | -99 | -99.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 204 | 203 | 202.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 209 | 211.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1799 | 1811 | 1814.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -101.41 | -99.9 | -99.90 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | |