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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Housing Starts MoM climbed to -5.2% in September 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Housing Starts MoM climbed to -5.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.7% from August's -5.9% reading. The reading missed the 1.9% consensus by 7.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.59%. Over the past 3 months, Housing Starts MoM averaged -7.5%, vs -0.55% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 31st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-5.2
Actual
1.9
Consensus
-5.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.44 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -2.93
Actual: -5.2
Error: +2.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Housing Starts MoM (United States) was reported at -5.2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.9% by 7.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -5.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.18%, ranging from -15.4% to 19% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -6.73%, down from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.96%) is higher than the prior year (σ 8.68%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.44%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Housing Starts MoM - US
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About Housing Starts MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Housing Starts MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of new residential construction projects that have begun in a given month. This data provides valuable insights into the health of the housing market and overall economic activity, as it reflects the level of demand for new homes and the confidence of builders in the market. A positive trend in Housing Starts MoM can indicate a growing economy, while a decline may signal a slowdown. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to make informed decisions and forecasts.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -5.2 K, consensus 1.9 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -2.6 K. Before that (Jul 2026): -12.4 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |