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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Housing Starts MoM climbed to 19.0% in June 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Housing Starts MoM climbed to 19.0% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 34.2% from May's -15.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.0% consensus by 19.0%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -2.56%. Over the past 3 months, Housing Starts MoM averaged -7.07%, vs 6.7% in the prior 3-month window. Housing Starts MoM is now the highest in 36 months.
Latest Release
19
Actual
0
Consensus
-15.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -3.18
Actual: 19
Error: -22.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Housing Starts MoM (United States) was reported at 19% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0% by 19%. The reading rose from the previous value of -15.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.79%, ranging from -15.4% to 19% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, down from the prior three at 2.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.07%) is higher than the prior year (σ 8.53%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Housing Starts MoM has averaged 8.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Housing Starts MoM - US
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About Housing Starts MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Housing Starts MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of new residential construction projects that have begun in a given month. This data provides valuable insights into the health of the housing market and overall economic activity, as it reflects the level of demand for new homes and the confidence of builders in the market. A positive trend in Housing Starts MoM can indicate a growing economy, while a decline may signal a slowdown. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to make informed decisions and forecasts.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 19 K, consensus 0 K. Prior reading (May 2026): -15.4 K. Before that (Apr 2026): -2.8 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |