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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Housing Starts MoM fell to -2.8% in April 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Housing Starts MoM fell to -2.8% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 14.8% from March's 12.0% reading. The print exceeded the -3.5% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.93%. Over the past 3 months, Housing Starts MoM averaged 2.1%, vs 0.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 45th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2.8
Actual
-3.5
Consensus
12
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.78 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -3.5
Actual: -2.8
Error: -0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.90 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bearish NZD | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | STOCKS | Bearish AAPL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Housing Starts MoM (United States) was reported at -2.8% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3.5% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 12%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.31%, ranging from -9.8% to 7.2% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.53%, up from the prior three at -2.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.47%) is lower than the prior year (σ 8.13%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Housing Starts MoM has averaged 1.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun 15) and Building Permits MoM (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Housing Starts MoM - US
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About Housing Starts MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Housing Starts MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of new residential construction projects that have begun in a given month. This data provides valuable insights into the health of the housing market and overall economic activity, as it reflects the level of demand for new homes and the confidence of builders in the market. A positive trend in Housing Starts MoM can indicate a growing economy, while a decline may signal a slowdown. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to make informed decisions and forecasts.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -2.8 K, consensus -3.5 K. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 10.8 K. Before that (Jan 2026): 7.2 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.90) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.