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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM fell to -0.4% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM fell to -0.4% in October 2026, down 0.4% from September's 0.0% reading. The reading missed the -0.1% consensus by 0.3%.
Latest Release
-0.400000
Actual
-0.100000
Consensus
0.000000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.15
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM (United States) was reported at -0.4% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0%. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.17%, ranging from -0.5% to 1% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0%, down from the prior three at 0.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.54%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.49%). In October readings over the past 3 years, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM has averaged -0.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM - US
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About S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM — United States
DEFINITION
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the month-over-month change in home prices in major metropolitan areas across the United States. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and trends of the housing market, making it a key tool for investors, economists, and policymakers. It is based on a rigorous methodology and is considered a reliable gauge of the overall strength of the housing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |