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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY climbed to 2.1% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY climbed to 2.1% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.5% from June's 1.6% reading. The print exceeded the 1.7% consensus by 0.4%.
Latest Release
2.100000
Actual
1.700000
Consensus
1.600000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 1.83
Actual: 2.1
Error: -0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (United States) was reported at 2.1% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.7% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.6%. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.43%, ranging from 0.8% to 2.1% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.6%, up from the prior three at 1.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.98%). In August readings over the past 3 years, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY has averaged 3.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY - US
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About S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in home prices in major metropolitan areas across the United States. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, making it a key tool for investors, economists, and policymakers. By tracking the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY, stakeholders can gain a better understanding of the current state and potential future direction of the housing market, allowing them to make informed decisions and predictions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 1.7 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |