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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY fell to 0.8% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY fell to 0.8% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.1% from March's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the 1.0% consensus by 0.2%.
Latest Release
0.800000
Actual
1.000000
Consensus
0.900000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.95
Actual: 0.8
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | STOCKS | Bearish GOOGL | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | STOCKS | Bullish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (United States) was reported at 0.8% in April 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.75%, ranging from 0.8% to 3.4% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.13%, down from the prior three at 1.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.72%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.05%). In May readings over the past 3 years, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY has averaged 4.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY - US
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About S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY — United States
DEFINITION
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in home prices in major metropolitan areas across the United States. This indicator provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, making it a key tool for investors, economists, and policymakers. By tracking the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY, stakeholders can gain a better understanding of the current state and potential future direction of the housing market, allowing them to make informed decisions and predictions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 0.8 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.45) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.