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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Building Permits MoM climbed to -0.4% in September 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Building Permits MoM climbed to -0.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.7% from August's -2.1% reading. The reading missed the -0.2% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.44%. Over the past 3 months, Building Permits MoM averaged 0.27%, vs 0.78% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 62nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
-0.2
Consensus
-2.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.8 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Building Permits MoM (United States) was reported at -0.4% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.2% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.21%, ranging from -4.7% to 5.8% across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -1.1%, down from the prior three at 2.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.52%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.96%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Building Permits MoM has averaged -1.65%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.8%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov 2) and ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Building Permits MoM - US
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About Building Permits MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Building Permits MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of permits issued for new construction projects on a monthly basis. This data provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the construction industry, as well as the overall health of the economy. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can indicate trends in housing demand, consumer confidence, and economic growth. A higher number of building permits MoM is generally seen as a positive sign for the economy, while a decline may signal a slowdown in construction activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.4 M, consensus -0.2 M. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -0.2 M. Before that (Aug 2026): -2.7 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 78 | 78.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Construction Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.5 | 54.7 | 55.50 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 77.9 | 77.5 | 77.90 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing Employment | 52.7 | 53 | 54.50 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing New Orders | 55.3 | 55.4 | 56.05 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.05 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.079 | 7.1 | 7.08 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | Economic Optimism Index | 46.8 | 46.2 | 45.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.066 | 3.05 | 3.14 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders ex Transportation | 0.3 | 0.4 | -0.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Factory Orders MoM | 0.1 | 1.1 | 0.85 | Medium | |
| 19:00 | US | Total Vehicle Sales | 16 | 15.9 | 19.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:15 | US | ADP Employment Change | 90 | 65 | 52.00 | High | |
| 13:30 | US | Imports | 420.8 | 429.1 | 430.60 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Balance of Trade | -105.6 | -107.6 | -107.75 | Medium | |
| 13:30 | US | Exports | 315.2 | 320.3 | 321.65 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.5 | 54.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services PMI | 54.9 | 54.8 | 54.60 | High | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services New Orders | 59.8 | 59.5 | 60.45 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Prices | 74 | 75 | 77.05 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Employment | 50.1 | 50 | 47.70 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | ISM Services Business Activity | 56.5 | 56 | 57.55 | Low | |