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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS New Home Sales MoM fell to 3.6% in December 2024
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased January 2025
US New Home Sales MoM fell to 3.6% in December 2024, released January 2025, down 6.0% from November's 9.6% reading. The print exceeded the -3.5% consensus by 7.1%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 4.4%. Over the past 3 months, New Home Sales MoM averaged -5.7%, vs 3.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.6
Actual
-3.5
Consensus
9.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.91 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2025
Predicted: -7.5
Actual: 3.6
Error: -11.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Home Sales MoM (United States) was reported at 3.6% in January 2025. This beat the market consensus of -3.5% by 7.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 9.6%. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.6%, down from the prior three at 3.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.91%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Goods Trade Balance Adv (Jun 26) and Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2025.
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New Home Sales MoM - US
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About New Home Sales MoM — United States
DEFINITION
New Home Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the number of newly constructed homes sold in a given month compared to the previous month. This data provides valuable insights into the strength of the housing market and overall consumer confidence, as well as the health of the construction industry. It is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers as it can impact the broader economy and financial markets. A positive trend in New Home Sales MoM indicates a growing demand for new homes, while a decline may signal a slowdown in the housing market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2024): actual 3.6 K, consensus -3.5 K. Prior reading (Nov 2024): 5.9 K. Before that (Oct 2024): -17.3 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83 | -85.2 | -85.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -83.01 | -85.4 | -85.40 | Medium | |