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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS API Weekly Crude Stock Change fell to -9.36M in July 2013
FMPWeeklyReleased July 2013
US API Weekly Crude Stock Change fell to -9.36M in July 2013, down 9.33M from June's -0.03M reading. The reading missed the -2.68M consensus by 6.68M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.02M. Over the past 3 months, API Weekly Crude Stock Change averaged -0.06M, vs 0.08M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 4th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-9.36
Actual
-2.68
Consensus
-0.03
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.21 million
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Jul 2013
Predicted: -2.44
Actual: -9.36
Error: +6.92
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
API Weekly Crude Stock Change (United States) was reported at 4.86 million in January 2014. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.10 million.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -2.18 million, up from the prior three at -6.12 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.22 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2014.
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API Weekly Crude Stock Change - US
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About API Weekly Crude Stock Change — United States
DEFINITION
API Weekly Crude Stock Change is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the amount of crude oil held in inventory by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on a weekly basis. This indicator provides valuable insights into the supply and demand dynamics of the oil market and can impact the price of crude oil and related investments. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and industry professionals to assess the health of the energy sector and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2014): actual 4.86 M. Prior reading (Jan 2014): -4.1 M. Before that (Jan 2014): -7.31 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.