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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change fell to 0.14M in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change fell to 0.14M in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.09M from August's 0.22M reading.
Latest Release
0.135000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.223000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (United States) was reported at 0.14 million in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.22 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.06 million, ranging from -0.55 million to 0.72 million across 41 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.07 million, up from the prior three at -0.23 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.30 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.33 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change has averaged -0.11 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Oct 21) and EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Oct 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change - US
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About EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change is a financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of crude oil processed by refineries in the United States. This data is used by investors and analysts to assess the current state of the oil industry and predict future market trends. A positive change in refinery crude runs indicates an increase in demand for refined products, while a negative change may suggest a decrease in demand. This indicator is an important tool for understanding the overall health of the energy sector and making informed investment decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 0.135 M. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 0.223 M. Before that (Sep 2026): -0.554 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.221 | 1.288 | 1.3 | 1.26 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -5.2 | -5.9 | 1.9 | -1.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.4 | 1.403 | 1.39 | 1.39 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -0.2 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.47 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -11.3 | -4.7 | 1 | -5.15 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -7.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -3.90 | Medium |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -4.93 | -11.12 | -1.3 | -3.12 | Medium |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 200 | 197.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1720 | 1713.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 200 | 187.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 67 | 83 | 81.50 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 20 | 18 | 21.00 | Low | |