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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change fell to -0.45M in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change fell to -0.45M in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.12M from August's 0.67M reading.
Latest Release
-0.448000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.668000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (United States) was reported at -0.45 million in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.67 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.01 million, ranging from -0.81 million to 0.68 million across 41 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.13 million, down from the prior three at 0.35 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.36 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.44 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change has averaged 0.01 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Oct 21) and EIA Gasoline Stocks Change (Oct 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change - US
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About EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of heating oil held in storage by commercial firms in the United States. This data is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it provides valuable insights into the current and future demand for heating oil, which can impact prices and market trends. The EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change is considered a reliable gauge of the health of the heating oil market and can be used to inform investment decisions and risk management strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -0.448 M. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 0.668 M. Before that (Sep 2026): -0.62 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.221 | 1.288 | 1.3 | 1.26 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -5.2 | -5.9 | 1.9 | -1.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.4 | 1.403 | 1.39 | 1.39 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -0.2 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.47 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -11.3 | -4.7 | 1 | -5.15 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -7.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -3.90 | Medium |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -4.93 | -11.12 | -1.3 | -3.12 | Medium |
| Wednesday, October 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -8.557 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 200 | 197.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1720 | 1713.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 200 | 187.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 20 | 18 | 21.00 | Low | |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 57.6 | 58.25 | Medium | |