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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Regular Gas Price fell to 4.28 Dollars per Gallon in October 2026
FREDWeeklyReleased October 2026
US Regular Gas Price fell to 4.28 Dollars per Gallon in October 2026, down 0.05 Dollars per Gallon from September's 4.33 Dollars per Gallon reading.
Latest Release
4.284000
Actual
—
Consensus
4.331000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Regular Gas Price (United States) was reported at 4.28 Dollars per Gallon in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.33 Dollars per Gallon. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.69 Dollars per Gallon, ranging from 2.78 Dollars per Gallon to 4.50 Dollars per Gallon across 52 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.32 Dollars per Gallon, down from the prior three at 4.42 Dollars per Gallon. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.61 Dollars per Gallon) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.05 Dollars per Gallon). In October readings over the past 3 years, Regular Gas Price has averaged 3.44 Dollars per Gallon.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (Oct 22) and Continuing Jobless Claims (Oct 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Regular Gas Price - US
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About Regular Gas Price — United States
DEFINITION
US Regular Gas Price for October registered at $4.284, down from September’s $4.331, marking a decline in fuel costs. The decrease from September to October signals easing pressure on consumer fuel expenses after a period of elevated prices. Market participants will watch upcoming energy reports and Federal Reserve signals for further impact on inflation and spending. Updated 10/21/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 4.284 Dollars per Gallon. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 4.331 Dollars per Gallon. Before that (Oct 2026): 4.354 Dollars per Gallon.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.45) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, October 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.221 | 1.288 | 1.3 | 1.26 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -5.2 | -5.9 | 1.9 | -1.65 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.4 | 1.403 | 1.39 | 1.39 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | -0.2 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.47 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | -11.3 | -4.7 | 1 | -5.15 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | -7.3 | 0.3 | -0.5 | -3.90 | Medium |
| 20:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -4.93 | -11.12 | -1.3 | -3.12 | Medium |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 198.5 | 200 | 197.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1710 | 1720 | 1713.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 199 | 200 | 187.50 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 67 | 83 | 81.50 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 20 | 18 | 21.00 | Low | |