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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change climbed to 40B in September 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased September 2026
US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change climbed to 40B in September 2026, up 10B from August's 30B reading. The print exceeded the 31B consensus by 9B. EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change averaged 40.09B, vs 65.54B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 53rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
40
Actual
31
Consensus
30
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.45 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 30.91
Actual: 40
Error: -9.09
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (United States) was reported at 40.00 billion in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 31.00 billion by 9.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 30.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 21.30, ranging from -177.00 to 108.00 across 37 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 28.33, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 75.55) is lower than the prior year (σ 111.14). In September readings over the past 3 years, EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change has averaged 51.90.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.45.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change - US
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About EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of natural gas held in storage facilities in the United States. This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it provides insight into the supply and demand dynamics of the natural gas market. A positive change in natural gas stocks indicates an increase in supply, while a negative change suggests a decrease in supply. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the overall health and stability of the natural gas industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 40 M, consensus 31 M. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 30 M. Before that (Aug 2026): 15 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |