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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change fell to 28.0 in July 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased July 2026
US EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change fell to 28.0 in July 2026, down 4.0 from June's 32.0 reading. The reading missed the 35.0 consensus by 7.0. EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change averaged 75.18, vs 44.0 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 28th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
28
Actual
35
Consensus
32
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.96
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 35.72
Actual: 32
Error: +3.72
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (United States) was reported at 28.00 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 35.00 by 7.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 32.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 23.19, ranging from -177.00 to 108.00 across 37 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 44.67, down from the prior three at 85.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 76.40) is lower than the prior year (σ 110.22). In July readings over the past 3 years, EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change has averaged 39.36.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.96.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change - US
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About EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change — United States
DEFINITION
The EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change is a key financial indicator that measures the weekly change in the amount of natural gas held in storage facilities in the United States. This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it provides insight into the supply and demand dynamics of the natural gas market. A positive change in natural gas stocks indicates an increase in supply, while a negative change suggests a decrease in supply. This indicator is an important tool for assessing the overall health and stability of the natural gas industry.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 28 M, consensus 35 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 32 M. Before that (Jul 2026): 41 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |