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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS WTI Crude Oil Price fell to 103.37 Dollars per Barrel in October 2026
FREDDailyReleased October 2026
US WTI Crude Oil Price fell to 103.37 Dollars per Barrel in October 2026, down 1.88 Dollars per Barrel from September's 105.25 Dollars per Barrel reading.
Latest Release
103.370000
Actual
—
Consensus
105.250000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
WTI Crude Oil Price (United States) was reported at 103.37 Dollars per Barrel in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 105.25 Dollars per Barrel. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 82.00 Dollars per Barrel, ranging from 55.44 Dollars per Barrel to 114.58 Dollars per Barrel across 249 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a daily basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 106.11 Dollars per Barrel, up from the prior three at 105.37 Dollars per Barrel. Volatility over the past year (σ 17.51 Dollars per Barrel) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.57 Dollars per Barrel). In October readings over the past 3 years, WTI Crude Oil Price has averaged 77.28 Dollars per Barrel.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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WTI Crude Oil Price - US
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About WTI Crude Oil Price — United States
DEFINITION
US WTI Crude Oil Price closed at 103.370000 USD on October, down from September’s 105.250000 USD. The decline signals a slight pullback after a mid-month peak above 110 USD, reflecting easing supply concerns. Market focus remains on inventory data and OPEC policy ahead of next month’s production meeting. Updated 10/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released daily.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 103.4 Dollars per Barrel. Prior reading (Oct 2026): 105.3 Dollars per Barrel. Before that (Oct 2026): 109.7 Dollars per Barrel.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |