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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Bank Loan Growth YoY fell to 11.4% in January 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2025
US Bank Loan Growth YoY fell to 11.4% in January 2025, released February 2025, down 0.1% from December's 11.5% reading.
Latest Release
11.400000
Actual
—
Consensus
11.500000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Bank Loan Growth YoY (United States) was reported at 11.4% in January 2025. The reading fell from the previous value of 11.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Aug 26) and Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Bank Loan Growth YoY - US
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About Bank Loan Growth YoY — United States
DEFINITION
Bank Loan Growth YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total amount of loans issued by banks. It provides insight into the growth or decline of lending activity in the banking sector, which can be an important indicator of overall economic health. A positive Bank Loan Growth YoY suggests a growing economy with increased demand for credit, while a negative growth may indicate a slowing economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact interest rates, inflation, and consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 4.3 | -2.6 | 5 | 4.47 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.433 | 1.374 | 1.443 | 1.44 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 442.5 | 442.4 | 442.8 | 442.65 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.25 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.10 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.678 | 0.62 | 0.60 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -8 | -3 | -1 | -1.25 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 11 | 8 | 7 | 12.25 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 89.4 | 90.2 | 90.3 | 89.85 | High |
| 22:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 4.2 | -0.328 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Medium |
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 0.3 | 0.7 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Corporate Profits QoQ | 0.5 | 0.7 | -2.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.53 | -1.7 | -2.25 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.688 | -1 | -1.09 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 4.405 | 1.9 | 2.29 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -101.4 | -99 | -99.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 204 | 203 | 202.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 208 | 210.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1799 | 1790 | 1793.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -101.41 | -99.9 | -99.90 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | |