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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Full Year GDP Growth climbed to 2.5% in November 2024
FMPQuarterlyReleased February 2025
US Full Year GDP Growth climbed to 2.5% in November 2024, released February 2025, up 0.5% from October's 2.0% reading. The reading missed the 2.8% consensus by 0.3%.
Latest Release
2.500000
Actual
2.800000
Consensus
2.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Full Year GDP Growth (United States) was reported at 2.5% in November 2024. This missed the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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Full Year GDP Growth - US
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About Full Year GDP Growth — United States
DEFINITION
Full Year GDP Growth is a key economic indicator that measures the overall growth of a country's economy over the course of a year. It takes into account the total value of goods and services produced within a country's borders and is a crucial measure of economic health and stability. A high Full Year GDP Growth indicates a strong and growing economy, while a low or negative growth rate may signal economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall economic performance of a country.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | -2.952 | 3.518 | -0.4 | -1.68 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -3.061 | -8.557 | -0.8 | -1.93 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.675 | -2.527 | -1.2 | 0.24 | Low |
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 198.75 | 200 | 198.06 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1703 | 1720 | 1718.75 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 200 | 200 | 192.25 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 67 | 79 | 77.75 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 11 | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 16 | 20 | 18 | 19.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 57.6 | 58.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | 55.5 | 55.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.8 | 58 | 59.05 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |