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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Government Expense (% of GDP) held to 24.9 Percent in December 2023
World BankYearlyReleased December 2023
US Government Expense (% of GDP) held to 24.9 Percent in December 2023.
Latest Release
24.898283
Actual
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Consensus
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Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Government Expense (% of GDP) (United States) was reported at 24.90 Percent in December 2023. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 27.25 Percent, up from the prior three at 25.75 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2023.
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Government Expense (% of GDP) - US
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About Government Expense (% of GDP) — United States
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, June 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 19.6 | 13.2 | 11.50 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production MoM | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.1 | 76.2 | 76.25 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.55 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production MoM | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.35 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 37 | 37.50 | Medium | |
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 4.4 | -0.6 | -0.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.423 | 1.41 | 1.41 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 4.2 | 6 | 6.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts MoM | -2.8 | -2 | -2.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.465 | 1.44 | 1.44 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.8 | 11.9 | 11.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2.10 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 4.9 | 4 | 4.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 3.2 | 1.5 | 2.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.45 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High | |
| Thursday, June 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1795 | 1790 | 1790.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | -0.4 | 10 | 10.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 219 | 223 | 223.00 | Low | |