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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS GDP External Demand QoQ climbed to 0.7% in Q4 2024
FMPQuarterlyReleased February 2025
US GDP External Demand QoQ climbed to 0.7% in Q4 2024, released February 2025, up 0.8% from October's -0.1% reading. The print exceeded the 0.4% consensus by 0.3%.
Latest Release
0.700000
Actual
0.400000
Consensus
-0.100000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP External Demand QoQ (United States) was reported at 0.7% in November 2024. This beat the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Durable Goods Orders MoM (Aug 26) and Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM (Aug 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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GDP External Demand QoQ - US
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About GDP External Demand QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
GDP External Demand QoQ is a key economic indicator that measures the change in a country's gross domestic product (GDP) from quarter to quarter, specifically focusing on the impact of external demand. This indicator provides valuable insights into a country's economic performance and its dependence on international trade and global market conditions. It is often used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to assess the overall health of an economy and make informed decisions. A positive QoQ growth in GDP External Demand indicates a strong demand for a country's goods and services in the global market, while a negative growth may signal a decline in international demand and potential economic challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, August 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits MoM | 4.3 | -2.6 | 5 | 4.47 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Building Permits | 1.433 | 1.374 | 1.443 | 1.44 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 442.5 | 442.4 | 442.8 | 442.65 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.90 | Medium |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.25 | Low |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.10 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | New Home Sales | 0.607 | 0.678 | 0.62 | 0.60 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -8 | -3 | -1 | -1.25 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 11 | 8 | 7 | 12.25 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 89.4 | 90.2 | 90.3 | 89.85 | High |
| 22:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | 4.2 | -0.328 | 1.8 | 3.00 | Medium |
| Wednesday, August 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.53 | -1.6 | -2.15 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.688 | -0.7 | -0.79 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | 4.405 | 0.6 | 0.99 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -101.4 | -99 | -99.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 204 | 203 | 202.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 208 | 210.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | -0.4 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1799 | 1790 | 1793.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -101.41 | -100.8 | -100.80 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 16 | 19 | 17.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 14.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 8.00 | Low | |