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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS GDP Growth Mainland QoQ fell to -0.4% in Q4 2024
FMPQuarterlyReleased February 2025
US GDP Growth Mainland QoQ fell to -0.4% in Q4 2024, released February 2025, down 0.9% from October's 0.5% reading. The reading missed the 0.2% consensus by 0.6%.
Latest Release
-0.400000
Actual
0.200000
Consensus
0.500000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Bullish Stocks | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish Gold | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Mainland QoQ (United States) was reported at -0.4% in November 2024. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update February 2025.
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GDP Growth Mainland QoQ - US
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About GDP Growth Mainland QoQ — United States
DEFINITION
GDP Growth Mainland QoQ is a key economic indicator that measures the quarterly change in the gross domestic product (GDP) of a country's mainland, excluding the impact of international trade and investment. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of a country's economy, serving as a crucial tool for policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions. A positive QoQ growth in GDP Mainland indicates a strong and expanding economy, while a negative growth suggests a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT'S NEXT
This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.