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Data from World Bank. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS GDP Deflator (Annual %) climbed to 2.8 Percent in December 2025
World BankYearlyReleased December 2025
US GDP Deflator (Annual %) climbed to 2.8 Percent in December 2025, up 0.32 Percent from November's 2.48 Percent reading.
Latest Release
2.801236
Actual
—
Consensus
2.482369
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Deflator (Annual %) (United States) was reported at 2.80 Percent in December 2025. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.48 Percent. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a yearly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
In December readings over the past 3 years, GDP Deflator (Annual %) has averaged 2.99 Percent.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct 23) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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GDP Deflator (Annual %) - US
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About GDP Deflator (Annual %) — United States
DEFINITION
The US GDP Deflator (Annual %) rose to 2.801236 in 2025, up from 2.482369 in 2024, indicating an acceleration in inflationary pressures. This increase from last year’s 2.48% to 2.80% signals a faster pace of price growth in the economy. Market participants will watch this trend closely as it may influence Federal Reserve policy decisions. Updated 7/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released annually.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary tailwind in the projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, October 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 198.75 | 200 | 198.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1703 | 1720 | 1724.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 200 | 200 | 197.00 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Leading Index MoM | 0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.05 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 67 | 79 | 78.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 11 | 14 | 11 | 11.00 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 16 | 20 | 18 | 17.00 | Low |
| Friday, October 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 58.4 | 57.6 | 58.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.9 | 55.5 | 55.25 | Medium | |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 58.8 | 58 | 59.05 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 48.1 | 47.6 | 47.60 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 50.9 | 50.5 | 50.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 46.3 | 45.9 | 45.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.6 | 4.7 | 4.70 | Low | |
| Monday, October 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | -0.04 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9.8 | 7 | 8.15 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.095 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, October 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits MoM | -2.1 | -0.7 | -0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | US | Building Permits | 1.403 | 1.39 | 1.39 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 0.1 | 0 | -0.85 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | -0.1 | 0.6 | -0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.20 | High | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.05 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 443.5 | 444.4 | 444.90 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.30 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0 | -0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | -2 | -3 | -5.50 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | 0 | -2 | -2.50 | Low | |