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Data from FRED. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Real GDP held to 24,269.61 Billions Chained 2017 USD in January 2026
FREDQuarterlyReleased April 2026
US Real GDP held to 24,269.61 Billions Chained 2017 USD in January 2026, released April 2026.
Latest Release
24269.613000
Actual
—
Consensus
24269.613000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Real GDP (United States) was reported at 24,269.61 Billions Chained 2017 USD in January 2026. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 24,168.59 Billions Chained 2017 USD, up from the prior three at 23,782.01 Billions Chained 2017 USD. In April readings over the past 3 years, Real GDP has averaged 23,775.70 Billions Chained 2017 USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Monthly Report (Sep 10) and Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
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Real GDP - US
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About Real GDP — United States
DEFINITION
US Real GDP rose to $24,065.956000B in September, up from August’s $24,026.834000B, marking a 0.16% month-over-month gain. This steady expansion continues a positive 12-month trend with annual growth of 5.37% compared to September 2024. Market reaction was muted as the print aligned with expectations, keeping the Federal Reserve’s moderate growth outlook intact. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 24,269.6 Billions Chained 2017 USD. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 24,180.4 Billions Chained 2017 USD. Before that (Oct 2025): 24,055.7 Billions Chained 2017 USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish Stocks, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, September 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -0.3 | -2.6 | -1.3 | -0.80 | Medium |
| Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.75 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 156.563 | 157 | 157.08 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.2 | 4.6 | 4.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1779 | 1780 | 1787.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 206 | 205 | 210.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.55 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 207.25 | 206 | 207.25 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.06 | 3.98 | 3.98 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.7 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Medium | |
| Friday, September 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.81 | 334.14 | 334.14 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.92 | 334.85 | 334.85 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.9 | 51.3 | 52.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 51.5 | 50.5 | 53.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51.7 | 51 | 52.45 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4 | 3.9 | 3.80 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -432 | -480 | -480.00 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -432 | -202.5 | -202.50 | Medium | |